The results of Hungary's parliamentary vote caught markets in an unusually good mood. The forint gained sharply over just a few days - from 377.20 forints per euro on April 10 to 366.90 on April 13, according to official ECB rates. That's close to three percent in under a week, which for a currency like the forint is not nothing.
Péter Magyar's Tisza party winning 138 out of 199 seats was cleaner than many analysts had expected, and markets responded accordingly. The BUX index climbed over 3% and hit a record high. OTP Bank, MOL, Richter, Magyar Telekom - all up.
The logic behind the move isn't hard to follow. Years of friction with Brussels have kept significant EU funds frozen, and investors are now betting that a change in government could unlock that money. It's not certainty, it's hope - but sometimes hope is enough to move an exchange rate.
That said, post-election enthusiasm has a way of running ahead of itself. Magyar hasn't governed a single day yet. Hungary still maintains relatively high interest rates compared to regional peers, inflation hasn't gone away, and repairing the relationship with the EU takes time regardless of who wins an election. Markets will eventually want credible reforms, not just goodwill.
So yes, the forint gained. The stock market cheered. But the more interesting question is what happens in three months, once the euphoria fades and the hard decisions actually have to be made.
For readers who want to follow the latest Hungarian forint exchange rate, historical performance, and daily currency moves, see our full HUF exchange rate page.