Radosław Sikorski, Poland’s foreign minister, says that if Warsaw completes its military plans by 2030, attacking Poland would become an irrational gamble even for the Kremlin. This is not just rhetoric. For 2026, Poland is preparing to spend around 4.8% of GDP on defence, the highest share in NATO.
Behind this military strength lies one of Europe’s most remarkable economic transformations. In just a few decades, Poland has moved from the rigid economy of communism to the position of a major regional economic power. In real terms, the IMF places it among the five largest economies in the European Union and among the top 20 in the world. By nominal GDP, its ranking is slightly lower, but the overall direction is impossible to deny.
The evolution of the Polish zloty exchange rate offers another perspective on Poland’s economic performance and the way international markets assess its outlook.
The evolution of the Polish zloty exchange rate offers another perspective on Poland’s economic performance and the way international markets assess its outlook.
The change can also be seen in migration. After years in which millions of Poles left for Germany, the United Kingdom or the Netherlands, more and more are now choosing to return. The wage gap with Western Europe has narrowed, the economy continues to grow, and Poland is no longer seen by its own citizens as a country they must leave in order to build a better life.
Sikorski also points to one of Western Europe’s major strategic mistakes. Germany believed for years that trade and Russia’s dependence on energy exports would make Moscow more moderate. Poland warned that pipelines bypassing Central Europe would bring not only cheap gas, but also political vulnerability. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Warsaw’s warnings no longer seem exaggerated. Germany continued with Nord Stream even after the annexation of Crimea, despite Polish opposition.
On Iran, Sikorski uses a harsh but clear formulation: the problem begins when a state stops behaving like a state and starts acting as a permanent revolution, trying to export its ideology. Iran has the right to defend its interests, but not to impose its political model on other societies.
In the case of the United Kingdom, the irony of Brexit is becoming increasingly visible. A majority of British voters now support, in principle, rejoining the European Union, but the political class is not ready to take such a step. Any return would require new negotiations, with no guarantee that London would recover the special privileges it had before leaving.
You may agree or disagree with Sikorski, but his vision is coherent: security is built through strength, prosperity through reform, and independence through reducing vulnerabilities. Poland is no longer asking to be treated as part of Europe’s periphery. It is already behaving like one of the continent’s major powers.